HUNTING THE SNIPER - Carl Worden
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15APR2002 Hunting the Sniper - Carl Worden 10 dead and three wounded... Ladies & gentlemen: We now have 10 dead and three wounded victims of the so-called "Beltway Sniper". This morning a 40 year-old bus driver was cut down by a single shot to the chest while standing on the steps of his bus. Obviously, there are not enough law enforcement personnel in place to do anything more than tie the tag on your toe and go look for who did. It has always been that way, but until this menace emerged it was never quite so obvious. Much to their chagrin, law enforcement is probably the most highly overrated profession in terms of crime prevention. More cops only means there are more people to go look for who did it, and that is the very best you can ever hope for. However, after 13 attacks in which the killer(s) were able to insert unnoticed, pick a target at their leisure, make the single fatal shot and exit without detection, a pattern is beginning to emerge that is somewhat predictable -- if you are paying attention. This sniper needs certain environmental and geographic conditions before he will strike. Maryland, Virginia and many of the areas surrounding Washington DC have greenbelts interspersed within the developed areas that give this sniper cover and a fully concealed position to retreat from. It appears he uses not only the cover of darkness at morning and night to insert himself, but he also relies upon inclement weather to keep everyone's heads down and indoors while he freely moves in for the kill -- and out. If you begin to think like the sniper himself, you will begin to recognize those areas that support his method of operation. He can't make even one mistake, so each and every aspect of his needs must be met before he strikes -- and that limits this killer to those set-ups that can be recognized even before he does. One thing this killer will probably never do is attack from the same location, for that has been the undoing of snipers time and again, and this guy isn't stupid. As for that white van or box truck? Maybe he uses one, and maybe it was just coincidental that such a vehicle was seen leaving the area with the first series of attacks. I don't know. What I do know is that if I was the sniper, I'd take the shot every time I saw a white van in the immediate area, and my money says that is exactly what he does. The herd has been conditioned by the media to look for a white van, so why not give them one to look at every time you make a kill? Personally, I think this sniper relies upon an exit on foot or perhaps even on a bicycle or motorcycle. If he does get picked up by an accomplice later, it is done by pre-planning, and these roadblocks are producing nothing, leading me to believe the killer(s) have arranged for relatively close "safe" houses or shelters, and perhaps even obscure motels or hotels they can safely wait out the heat in. At this point I don't believe these killers are relying upon any specific kind of vehicle. I know I wouldn't. So if you are in or near the kind of area that supports this sniper's insert and exit needs, you are in danger, but if you stay clear of those kinds of set-ups, the chances you'll be a victim are dramatically reduced. For example, if you know a gas station is located across the street (or in line of sight) from a greenbelt area that has little or no development on the other side, don't buy your gasoline there. Do your shopping and outing during mid-day, and never at first light or at dusk. Rain and snow keeps witnesses' heads down, inside and muffles noise. Snipers love rain and snow, so don't go out in it, and particularly at first light or at dusk. Knowing what kind of set-ups this sniper requires will also help the police to eliminate certain areas and concentrate their patrols in locations that support his needs. If the sniper is forced to use less-than-perfect set-ups, the chance he'll be exposed to capture will be dramatically increased. Food for thought, for the truly thoughtful. Carl F. Worden Liaison & Intelligence Officer Southern Oregon Militia 
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